Source：Dahe Fortune Cube

Link：https://app.dahecube.com/nweb/news/20251024/251189n4185d112355.htm

Five Major Advantages Support China’s Long-Term Economic Growth    

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 20 to 23. The session reviewed and adopted the “CPC Central Committee’s Proposal for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development.”

On October 24, Yu Miaojie, President of Liaoning University gave an exclusive interview to a reporter from Dahe Fortune Cube. He provided an in-depth interpretation of the message of the Fourth Plenary Session and offered a forward-looking analysis of the economic prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

Plenary Session Emphasizes High-Level Modern Industrial System, Stressing Dialectical Unity of Supply and Demand    

The plenary session proposed building a modern industrial system and consolidating and strengthening the foundation of the real economy. It emphasized focusing on economic development on the real economy, adhering to the direction of intelligentization, greeness and integration, accelerating the building of China into a manufacturer of quality, a strong trader in quality, an aerospace power, a transportation power, and a cyberspace power, maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, and constructing a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone.

“The plenary session particularly emphasized a high-level modern industrial system and elevated it to the most important position,” Yu Miaojie stated. This sends a clear signal that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, there will be an unwavering commitment to making the manufacturing sector bigger and stronger, further highlighting China’s advantage of having a super-sized, comprehensive industrial chain.

Yu Miaojie expressed that the plenary session clearly identifies the real economy as the foundation for building China into a manufacturer of quality, a strong trader in quality, and the other mentioned goals. The core logic lies in strengthening the foundation for these goals through “quality enhancement,” with “standard setting” being the key lever for achieving this quality improvement.

The plenary session proposed building a strong domestic market and accelerating the formation of a new development pattern. It emphasized on expanding domestic demand, closely integrating initiatives that benefit people’s livelihoods with those that promote consumption, and combining investment in physical assets with investment in human capital. The aim is to use new demand to guide new supply, use new supply to create new demand, promote a positive interaction between consumption and investment, supply and demand, and enhance the endogenous dynamism and reliability of the domestic cycle.

In Yu Miaojie’s view, the plenary session’s dialectical discussion on the relationship between supply and demand is another highlight. “Supply and demand are unified and coordinated; we cannot unilaterally emphasize either one,” he stated.

Yu used emerging consumption scenarios like the “ice and snow economy” as an example. He explained that as household consumption demand upgrades, new demand scenarios such as winter sports emerge, which directly drives innovation in related equipment manufacturing and service supply, forming a virtuous cycle where “demand generates supply.” Conversely, when the supply side introduces better, more convenient products through technological breakthroughs, it can stimulate latent consumer willingness, achieving a scenario where “supply creates demand.” This logic of two-way interaction breaks from the traditional mindset of focusing exclusively on either supply or demand, providing the fundamental underpinning for unleashing the vitality of China’s massive domestic market.

Five Strengths Bolster China’s Long-Term Economic Prospects    

The communique notes that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s development environment will undergo profound and complex changes, marking a period where strategic opportunities coexist with risks and challenges, and factors of uncertainty and unpredictability are increasing. However, China’s economy has a solid foundation, numerous strengths, strong resilience, and vast potential. The supporting conditions and fundamental trend of long-term improvement remain unchanged. Yu Miaojie interpreted this assessment from five perspectives.

The first strength is the advantage of a super-large market. “Our population base of 1.4 billion creates a massive economic market. As the General Secretary stated, the market is the most scarce resource,” Yu said. He expressed that this massive population base, combined with the formation of a large, unified domestic market, allows for a more full and smooth release of this potential.

The second strength is the construction of a modern industrial system. Yu Miaojie stated that China had established a comprehensive industrial classification system encompassing 41 major categories, 207 medium categories, and 666 minor categories, making it the only country in the world to possess all industrial classifications designated by the United Nations. Particularly, the development of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, new materials, new energy, high-end equipment, biopharmaceuticals, and quantum technology is flourishing.

The Improvement of institutional mechanisms is the third one. “Thanks to the Party’s strong leadership, the advantage of our whole-nation system ensures that every policy is implemented comprehensively across all sectors and down to every level, fully executing the decisions of the Party Central Committee,” Yu stated.

The fourth is the talent advantage. “The 12 million university graduates China produces each year have a very positive impact on the nation’s economic development, continuously releasing the demographic dividend,” Yu said. He added that the engineer dividend, coupled with the vigorous development of technological innovation, makes this talent advantage even more pronounced.

The fifth one is the cultural advantage. Yu Miaojie believes that Chinese civilization is the only one in human history that has continued unbroken. This cultural strength will contribute to China’s high-quality economic development and high-level social development, achieving high-quality economic growth under the premise of high-level security.

External Risks Pose the Greatest Challenge, with 2035 Target for World’s Top Economy    

Yu Miaojie expresses full confidence in the economic prospects for the “15th Five-Year Plan” period.

“There is no doubt that China will maintain its contribution rate of 30% to world economic growth,” Yu stated. He explained that with China’s economy growing at 4.5% to 5% annually, and the US at 2.5%, and given that China’s total economic output is currently about 70% of the US’s, based on these calculations, China should surpass the US to become the world’s largest economy in about ten years, around 2035. This would also mean the successful achievement of the strategic goal of “becoming a medium-level developed country.”

Simultaneously, Yu also pointed out the risks and challenges. “The greatest uncertainty lies in external risks and challenges, particularly the narrow ‘closed-doorism’ and unilateralism prioritizing their own countries promoted by some nations, which pose significant challenges to both economic globalization and political multipolarity.”

Another challenge is the aging population. “This is a global issue. We can gradually mitigate its impact by developing the silver economy and related industries, but we must also address it by improving population policies,” he said.

Yu particularly emphasized that the more turbulent and uncertain the external economic environment becomes, the more essential it is to respond with high-level opening up, countering the trade bullying acts of certain countries.