LEI Zekun    School of Economics

Abstract: With the rapid development of the economy, climate warming has caused the influence, serious threat to the survival of people and the sustainable development economic. China has increasingly attached great importance to control the energy conservation and emissions reduction, reducing carbon dioxide emissions, tread that as a big problem about ecological environment. However ,reducing the cost of economic development in exchange for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases is not the best of both worlds, therefore, seeking a way that be good to economic growth to reduce carbon emissions is very important, China has made a commitment that:By 2015, China unit of GDP of carbon dioxide emissions will reduce 17% less than2012. China is still a developing country, which is in the fast developing period of urbanization, industrialization, and has a lot of pressure to control greenhouse gas emissions, this task is not easy to finish. It must make arduous efforts. Research of this paper to reduce China's carbon dioxide emissions, optimize environment and rational utilization of the environment, promoting China's economic health of sustainable and more efficient energy consumption of residents in our country, has important theoretical significance and practical significance.

First the article first analyze the co2 emission in China since reform and opening to the outside situation, and by using gray prediction model to forecast the carbon dioxide emissions in the next decade. Then, devise the influence of carbon emissions into five factors, such as decomposed into economic growth, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure and energy intensity of carbon dioxide, based on LMD]logarithmic decomposition method, and quantitative analysis on the influence degree of various factors. Then seek influence of China's emissions of carbon dioxide causes and solutions according to the analysis result. In addition, the residents' consumption emissions of carbon dioxide also cannot be ignored, finally to the residents consumption emissions of carbon dioxide using same LMDI model are analyzed, and based on the results of the analysis put forward reasonable Suggestions to reduce emissions. Through the analysis above, the conclusion of paper is that: From 1999-2011, the impacts on China's carbon emissions are the main driving factors of economic growth and energy intensity. The second important factor is the industrial structure and energy intensity of carbon dioxide. It is not obviously unreasonable to expense economic growth to seek to curb carbon dioxide, therefore, we can only from the other three aspects to find an effective way of energy saving and emission reduction. Carbon dioxide intensity and carbon per capital energy consumption is the main driving factors from all the factors, followed by the energy structure and population scale. AS we use large amounts of heat, electricity, Using natural gas instead of coal and other high emissions energy, we can not solve the problem fundamentally.

Read the article here:        影响全国二氧化碳排放驱动因素分析_雷泽坤.pdf