Liu zhizhong, School of Economics

Wu Moxin, Center for Economic and Political Studies in Transitional Countries

 Abstract: Based on the background of trade friction between China and the United States, this paper studies the impact of the trade surplus between China and the United States on employment in China, introduces the Cobby-Douglas production function theory as the basis for the selection of variables, and selects the panel data of 31 provinces (municipalities) in China from 2001 to 2018 for the empirical analysis, and on the basis of which the 31 provinces are divided into northeastern, eastern, central and western regions to test their heterogeneity, as well as to test their heterogeneity based on the different levels of labor skills. Based on this, the 31 provinces are divided into northeast, east, central and west regions to test their heterogeneity, and based on different levels of labor force skills to test their heterogeneity. The results show that the trade surplus with the U.S. has a positive effect on employment in all provinces, with the most significant effect on the central region, followed by the western region, and the effect is not obvious in the eastern and northeastern regions; the trade surplus with the U.S. promotes the employment of low-skilled people, but has a negative effect on high-skilled people. The study shows that the industrial structure needs to be shifted and upgraded from the eastern region to the central and western regions, and the labor structure also needs to be upgraded urgently, so as to promote the sustainable development of the economy and employment in all provinces of China, as well as to stabilize the employment of people with different skill structures.

Read the article here:         【可持续发展】中美贸易顺差对中国就业的影...基于省际面板数据的实证分析.pdf